- Much has been discussed regarding the effects on climate caused by human activities. This may in part be (very loosely) based on fact, but a great deal of 'fact' is conveniently ignored. The emphasis is clearly on a justification for raised taxation. Not science.
The
orbit of any body around another is rarely, if ever, a perfect circle. The theoretical extremes of the
eccentricity are a
circle and an
ellipse and the change from one to another can be caused by several interacting effects. The relative position of a
focus (Sun) may possibly not vary a great deal, but the distance of the orbiting object around that focus does change. The extremity of distance of an orbiting body from the focus will increase as circular morphs to elliptical. This will ensure that the orbital distance remains the same and is a prerequisite since the annual orbit is the same. The
'squashed circle'. The more 'squashed' this circle becomes, the closer the body is to the Sun.
Hotter.
It should be recognised that the Earth year is currently
365.25 days and many thousands (possibly millions) of years ago may have been less, possibly
360 days. The entire solar system is in motion and the relative
(absolute) position in space will change enormously from one
'year' to the next. The appearance is one of
stability, but this is the
illusion. The effect of
global warming and the associated potential for
climate change are then (theoretically) very
real.
The effect may be the same, though
the interpretation of cause does
change considerably
A more elliptical orbit will have an increased
major axis distance from the focus compared to that of a more circular one, but since the circle is
'squashed' even though the distance from the focus increases, the overall orbital distance is not appreciably changed. The velocity
between the extremes of the elliptical orbit: the
closest to the
Sun =
perihelion (fastest and hottest) or furthest from the
Sun (aphelion) as the
(slowest and coldest) will be intermediate to that
around the focus (
long/short axis). The
major axis is the distance from one extreme of the ellipse to the opposite side passing through the centre - the furthest separation. The
semi-major axis is the shorter distance between positions at right angles to the
major axis. The
ellipticity is the
ratio of the
semi-major axis distance to that of the
focus to the centre. The object could conceivably be
oval in shape and other planetary
(gravitational) influences will effect change. The relative orbital locations of the planets with respect to each other will continuously change since the
'yearly' revolution for each of the planets is different. Inter-planetary gravitational influence will be constantly different as the relative positions are
all in continual variance.
- NB: the Earth system because of axial tilt ensures that in the northern hemisphere, summer is during aphelion and winter occurs during perihelion. The seasons are a consequence of this obliquity. The majority of land mass in the northern hemisphere and oceans in the south is a prime reason for a hospitable environment. Were this to be the other way around, the temperatures in the north during summer would be much greater and less in the south. The consequences for mammalian survival would be dire: axial precession foretells a grim scenario within the next 10 - 15,000 years or so...
Mercury
Venus
Earth
- 365.25 (Earth) days, 1.00AU
Mars
Asteroid Belt
- Either a failed accretion caused by the opposing Jupiter-Sun gravitational influence or a destroyed planet from collision*
Jupiter
- 4332.75 (Earth) days (11 years 315 days), 5.2AU
Saturn
- 10759.25 (Earth) days (29 years 167 days), 9.54AU
Uranus
- 30687 (Earth) days (84 years 6 days), 19.22AU
Neptune
- 60189 (Earth) days (164 years 288 days), 30.06AU
* Two (or more) objects could have collided by virtue of sharing the same (or very similar) orbital distance from the Sun though with (slightly) different velocities. Such a collision may have been relatively slow, but sufficient for mutual destruction.
The
transit of one object around another continually changes. The
square of the orbital circumference as measured by the transit time
(Earth) days is proportional to the
cube of the radial distance (AU), but only for the truly
circular orbit. The velocity of a planet decreases with the
radial distance: the further away, the slower its orbital speed according to
Kepler's third law:
Orbits are not perfect circles and so the constancy is only approximate, but the relationship appears to be valid.
7744 (88 x 88) days/0.38AU x 0.38AU x 0.38AU =
50625 (225 x 225) days/0.72AU x 0.72AU x 0.72AU =
133407.6 (365.25 x 365.25) days/1AU x 1AU x 1AU =
471969 (687 x 687) days/1.52AU x 1.52AU x 1.52AU =
18772722.6 (4332.75 x 4332.75) days/5.2AU x 5.2AU x 5.2AU =
115761460.6 (10759.25 x 10759.25) days/9.54AU x 9.54AU x 9.54AU =
941691969 (30687 x 30687) days/19.22AU x 19.22AU x 19.22AU =
3622715721 (60189 x 60189) days/30.06AU x 30.06AU x 30.06AU =
The
obliquity of the Earth is the change in its
axial tilt and it is estimated to take around
41,000 years to move from
21.5deg to
24.5deg and back again. Currently it is about
23.5deg. The
precession of this axial shift defines the
'wobble' of the Earth's motion at any specific tilt angle:
26,000 years. So the Earth precesses around its axis at a specific angle that itself changes over time. The orbit of this rotating object that precesses, changes between a flattened ellipse to a more circular shape over an estimated
100,000 years. What this means is that the Earth orbit from any one year to the next fluctuates, albeit by a very small amount, and the planet's position in space relative to the
Sun will never be the same from one year to the next.
Even Earth's Moon rotating
once on its own axis for every
single '
orbit' about the Earth has a gravitational interaction resulting in roughly
two Earth tides every day. One 'orbit' takes about
30 days = a
12 deg positional eastward shift every day and
12/360 x 24hrs =
0.8hrs (
48 mins).
Tides are (on average)
48mins later every subsequent day.
The heat radiated by the Sun and absorbed by the Earth's atmosphere will constantly
increase/decrease over the thousands of years that these related movements occur. The climate of the planet changes because the
distance of the Earth from the
Sun is always changing. And the
Sun is getting warmer.
- As an observation, Jupiter's average 'year' is 11.86 Earth years (= 4332.71/365.25 Earth days) and sunspot activity appears to have maxima every 11 or so years, but it is not likely that Jupiter's orbital gravitational influence would affect the Sun's activity: the tiny Jovian speck having such an effect on the comparative enormity of the Sun just doesn't make a lot of sense. However, any gravitational changes of the Sun caused by the sunspots (relatively cooler areas on the Sun's surface or photosphere) could, however, affect the orbital transit of all celestial bodies within its sphere of influence. Sunspots involve magnetism and gravity and magnetism could be related.
The three cycles are operating simultaneously and since the relative periods are so diverse, synchronicity cannot happen (accepting that the time-periods are correct). A complete
precession (26,000 years) cycle through
6degs (21.5degs -> 24.5degs -> 21.5degs) occurs roughly
4 times for every
eccentricity cycle
(100,000 years) where
obliquity (41,000 years) happens only
two and one-half times. The position in space at any moment and the changing gravitational influences caused by the constant motion of the planets ensures the radiation from the Sun is never constant either. The result:
Climate Change
Comment
- Actual denials of climate change are rarely voiced, though the single reason for it being caused by human activity is vehemently challenged. It is clearly politically and financially motivated and crude attempts at ridicule are simply accusations of 'deniers of climate change'. This is the classic response of those who define fair and reasonable challenge as conspiracy theory and such accusers are nauseatingly hypocritical simply by ignoring mainline science and their own arrogance by attempting to shift understanding by prosyletising their beliefs. The patronising "holier-than-thou" attitude defines the stance of such people as no case is ever put that can be properly argued.
It's as ridiculous as it is nauseating
A
true scientist knows the
cosmological (or
cosmogony) arguments. At the very least
they should do. Before
pontificating about their version of the
truth based on untruth or incomplete (known) argument.
Cherry-picking is like statistics. Any story can be told with massaging.
Truth can never be
'massaged'.