Pyramid Science

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Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Hypothesis and Theory

Hypothesis based on a concept is formulated and the theory later developed that explains the mechanism by which the hypothesis works when supportive, but not necessarily conclusive, observational evidence exists.

Proof can never happen, only more results

that are consistent can be observed

   There comes a time, however, when the hypothesis and the explanatory theory become an established fact. Prediction of future observation will almost certainly convince doubters or possible skeptics that the 'established facts' are absolutely correct. The problem here is that the 'accepted' theory is unlikely to be considered wrongLater observed facts that cannot easily be explained based on a theory that may itself be wrong can result in a conversion:

small errors

large errors

   Everything starts to fail, but both the hypothesis and the theory (probably) remain unchanged. An alternative may exist that explains all the observed facts with nothing added or taken away.

Everything must... fit

   Theories are themselves developed from existing theories that may themselves be misconceived. A hypothesis has starting and endpoints and the danger is that any preconceived starting point and the consequential post-accepted absolutes of 'proven fact' can cause failure.

The mighty oak that does not yield

to the increasing

strength of winds of test will fall over

   The length of the time that a theory has existed just strengthens belief, regardless of the integrity of argument, in the light of new information. Support for a belief can be from those who simply... just believe. There will always be those who will remain in denial even after the evidence strongly suggests an alternative mechanism to an incorrect theory that supposedly explains nothing more than a hypothesis, itself nothing more than conjecture.

If something is wrong,

it remains wrong

   Selecting an argument (cherry-picking) to support a prejudged conclusion is not scientific. Great care must be exercised to ensure that no bias is introduced and must involve everything and ignore nothing (good science). If anomalous features are uncovered they must all be explicable within any overall conclusion, otherwise, the hypothesis and theory are probably invalid. Life is unlikely to simply... begin, it's too complex. This, must, however, remain a possibility.


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