Pyramid Science

This is for researching science-based articles and the contents are for personal use although a wider potential interest is possible and so they are left here to view. No medical advice is given and a qualified medical practitioner should be consulted if any concerns are raised. Comments have been disabled, but any and all unsolicited or unauthorised links are absolutely disavowed.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Hypothesis and Theory

Hypothesis based on a concept is formulated and the theory later developed that explains the mechanism by which the hypothesis works when supportive, but not necessarily conclusive, observational evidence exists.
  • Proof can never happen, only more results that are consistent can be observed.
   There comes a time, however, when hypothesis and the explanatory theory become established fact. Prediction of future observation will almost certainly convince doubters or possible sceptics that the 'established facts' are absolutely correct. The problem from here is that the 'accepted' theory is unlikely to be considered wrong. Later observed facts that cannot easily be explained based on a theory that may itself be wrong can result in a conversion:

small errors

large errors

   Everything starts to fail, but both the hypothesis and the theory (probably) remain unchanged. An alternative may exist that explains all the observed facts with nothing added or taken away. Everything must... fit. Theories are themselves developed from existing theories that may themselves be misconceived. A hypothesis has starting and end points and the danger is that any preconceived starting point and the consequential post-accepted absolutes of 'proven fact' can cause failure.
  • The mighty oak that does not yield to the increasing strength of winds of test will fall over.
The length of time that a theory has existed just strengthens belief, regardless of the integrity of argument, in the light of new information. Support for a belief can be from those who simply... just believe. There will always be those who will remain in denial even after the evidence strongly suggests an alternative mechanism to an incorrect theory that supposedly explains nothing more than hypothesis, itself nothing more than conjecture.
  • If something is wrong, it remains wrong.
Selecting argument (cherry picking) to support a prejudged conclusion is not scientific. Great care must be exercised to ensure that no bias is introduced and must involve everything and ignore nothing. If anomalous features are uncovered they must all be explicable within any overall conclusion, otherwise the hypothesis and theory are probably invalid. Life is unlikely to simply... begin, it's too complex. This, must, however, remain a possibility.


Post a Comment

<< Home